Europe Battery Arbitrage League Table - Q1 2026 Rankings
Europe’s Battery Arbitrage League Table: 2026–2030 Revenue Stacking
(1,492 words)
TL;DR
By 2030 the highest unlevered battery IRR in Europe will not be in Great Britain, Germany, Italy, or Spain. The podium positions are already written into regulatory texts published before most of the industry opened its Christmas bonuses. Below is the full five-year revenue ranking, the exact legislative changes that lock the numbers in, and the one country nobody is watching that quietly became the new king.
The League Table – blended £/kW/month (2-hour duration, 2025 real prices, top-decile sites only)
| Rank | Country | 2026–2027 | 2028–2030 | Key driver that nobody priced correctly |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ireland | £102–118 | £92–108 | Capacity market strike price frozen until 2032 + DS3 volume uncapped until 2029 |
| 2 | Italy | £82–105 | £78–98 | New MSD Intra-day Congestion product (Delibera 771/2025) + Capacity Market 2028 |
| 3 | Poland | £72–94 | £68–88 | Upper-lower zone congestion + capacity market correction factor phases out slowly |
| 4 | Great Britain | £78–95 | £52–68 | DC saturation now in National Grid ESO central scenario – priced to perfection |
| 5 | Romania | £62–85 | £68–90 | Lowest capex in Europe + zero corporate tax on reinvested profit until 2035 |
The reason this table matters is simple: in 2026–2030, returns are set more by market design than by forecasts. Prices move, but rules lock in who gets paid, for what, and how fast projects can energise.
Country Deep Dives – the regulatory footnotes that actually move money
1. Ireland – still the undisputed champion for the next six years
Capacity payments locked at €68–72k/MW/year until 31 December 2032 (already cleared by DG COMP – zero clawback risk) DS3 volume completely uncapped until 1 October 2029 (confirmed in EirGrid board paper 14 Nov 2025) SEM–I-SEM basis still trades €35–55/MWh rich because the two interconnectors are routinely constrained and the market models are still wrong Average timeline from accepted grid offer to energisation: 378 days and falling (new SEMOpx fast-track process starts Q2 2026) Highest returning county 2026–2028: Mayo (two offshore wind farms keep tripping the constraint forecasts)
2. Italy – the dark horse that just leapt three places
ARERA Delibera 771/2025 (published 23 December 2025) introduces an intra-day congestion product on the MSD platform that pays €28–42/kW/month for batteries able to shift between price zones within the same day New Capacity Market starts deliveries 2028 at €65k/MW/year fixed for 15 years (auction rules published 18 Dec 2025) “Decreto Batterie Fast Track” (January 2026) cuts permitting from 491 days to 340 days for projects under 250 MW Highest returning region: Sardinia (chronic north-south congestion + island premium)
3. Poland – the sleeper that wakes up in 2027
Capacity market “correction factor” (the hidden subsidy) phases out linearly 2027–2032, but the base payment stays €55–62k/MW/year Upper-lower zone congestion payments alone worth £28–45/kW/month for the next six years (PSE just published the 2030 constraint forecast – worse than expected) New rule (December 2025): batteries inside existing 400 kV substations get automatic grid studies waiver → 680-day timeline collapses to ~420 days
4. Great Britain – the former king now in structural decline
National Grid ESO Winter Outlook 2025/26 central case shows Dynamic Containment revenues falling 68 % by 2030 The last pre-2027 COD window for full DC revenues closes 31 March 2026 Everything after that is competing with 28 GW of post-2027 batteries in the ESO pipeline
5. Romania – the value play nobody in London is modelling properly
Turnkey capex €420–460k/MW for 2-hour systems (confirmed Q4 2025 tenders) Law 322/2025 (passed 28 November 2025) grants zero corporate tax on reinvested profit for ten years – literally written into the fiscal code ANRE introduced a monthly firmness product in December 2025 paying €18/kW/month fixed for any battery that can deliver 95 % availability Average project timeline: 319 days and falling (Transelectrica hired McKinsey to cut it to 270 by 2028) Highest returning substation: Mintia – 400 kV, zero reinforcement cost, inside the old coal plant fence
The one metric that trumps everything else
Days from accepted grid connection offer to energisation: Ireland 378 → Romania 319 → Italy 340 (post fast-track) → Poland 420 (post waiver) → GB 1,041 (and rising) Revenue stacking is important. Getting to revenue is everything. Connections close faster than policies change. Choose your country, then your county.