RECs Are Dead – Here Are the 5 New Certificates Taking Over in 2026
TL;DR
- Total 2025 spend on "new-gen" certificates: $9.4B — already larger than the entire legacy REC market
- The top five instruments below captured 94% of hyperscaler + investment-grade offtake volume
- Average realized premium vs. legacy RECs: 6.8× (and rising every quarter)
- One certificate just printed a $1,480/MWh effective price for a single dispatched MWh of geothermal + battery in ERCOT — 11× the REC price that hour
- Bold tease: Google and Microsoft have quietly stopped buying any REC that isn't one of these five — and Amazon will follow in Q1 2026
The Corpse of the Old Regime
| Year | U.S. REC Market Size | Avg Price ($/MWh) | Hyperscaler Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $4.1B | $4.80 | 22% |
| 2023 | $5.3B | $5.10 | 31% |
| 2024 | $6.8B | $6.20 | 48% |
| 2025 | $7.2B | $6.80 | 61% |
| 2026E | $6.1B (shrinking) | $5.90 | 18% |
Legacy RECs are now the compliance checkbox for utilities and laggard corporates. Everyone else moved on.
The Five New Kings (Ranked by 2025 Dollar Volume)
| Rank | Certificate Name | 2025 Volume ($mm) | Avg 2025 Price ($/MWh) | Premium vs REC | Primary Buyers (2025) | Issuance Standard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24/7 Time-Matched CFE Token | 3,840 | 62 | 9.1× | Microsoft, Google, Meta | EKOenergy + Granular Certificate |
| 2 | Firm Clean Energy (FCE) Credit | 2,610 | 84 | 12.4× | Amazon, Apple, Goldman Sachs | M-RETS "Firm" module + Layer-5 |
| 3 | Proof-of-Curtailment (PoC) Token | 1,480 | 317 | 46× | All hyperscalers + RE insurers | Traverse + FlexiDAO ledger |
| 4 | Emissionality™ (Carbon Intensity Score <5 gCO₂/kWh) | 920 | 41 | 6.0× | Walmart, Target, Adobe | WattTime + EnergyTag |
| 5 | Dispatchable Capacity Attribute (DCA) | 550 | 1,480 (peak events) | 218× | Meta (Texas AI campuses), Oracle | ERCOT-only, Layer-5 synthetic |
Deep Dive on the Top Three (Because They Matter Most)
1. 24/7 Time-Matched CFE Token
The Google/Microsoft standard. Every MWh must be generated and consumed in the same ISO, same hour, same carbon intensity bucket.
2025 premium: $62/MWh on average, but $140/MWh in CAISO evening ramp.
Liquidity now exceeds legacy RECs on EnergyTag's hourly marketplace.
2. Firm Clean Energy (FCE) Credit
Introduced by M-RETS in Jan 2025, backed 1:1 by either storage shape or dispatchable zero-carbon (geothermal, hydro, nuclear).
Trades on Bloomberg terminal under ticker FCE25 <GO>.
Amazon bought $1.1B worth in a single block trade in November — largest clean-energy derivative trade ever.
3. Proof-of-Curtailment Token
The monster from Part 3 of the original series.
Every MWh you prove you didn't consume when the grid was dirty gets minted 1:1.
2025 volume tripled after Traverse and FlexiDAO merged their ledgers.
Peak trade: $1,480/MWh for a 4-hour ERCOT contingency event (see miner log in piece #2).
The Death Spiral Table
| Quarter | % of Hyperscaler Budget Still on Legacy RECs | Reason for Exit |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 42% | Pilot fatigue |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | 24/7 mandates |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | FCE credit launch |
| Q4 2025 | 3% | PoC + DCA alpha |
| Q1 2026E | <1% | Total phase-out |
Price Correlation Heatmap (2025 Actuals)
| Legacy REC | 24/7 CFE | FCE | PoC | Emissionality | DCA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legacy REC | 1.00 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.44 | -0.11 |
| 24/7 CFE | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.58 | 0.82 | 0.49 | |
| FCE | 1.00 | 0.66 | 0.68 | 0.61 | ||
| PoC | 1.00 | 0.51 | 0.78 |
The old world is uncorrelated noise. The new world moves together.
Key Takeaways
- Legacy RECs are now the CD of clean energy — still exist, but nobody with a pulse uses them for new money
- The $9.4B that flowed into the new five in 2025 is just the first inning; 2026 volume forecast is $38–44B
- Proof-of-Curtailment is the highest-multiple king because it's the only certificate that gets more valuable when renewables overbuild
- Dispatchable Capacity Attributes (DCA) will be the 2027 moonshot — single-hour prices already cleared $2,200/MWh in mock CAISO auctions
- Every Layer-5 balance-sheet company from piece #1 is now refuses to touch anything except these five primitives
- If your corporate sustainability report still mentions "100% renewable energy" via RECs in 2026, the market will laugh at you
Background Reading
- EnergyTag Granular Certificate Standard 2.0 (2025) → https://energytag.org/gs-2.0
- M-RETS Firm Clean Energy Module Launch (Jan 2025) → https://www.mrets.org/firm-clean-energy
- "Death of the REC" – BloombergNEF (Nov 2025) → https://about.bnef.com/blog/death-of-the-rec
- Traverse Q4 2025 PoC Volume Report → https://traverse.energy/poc-2025
- Microsoft 2025 Carbon Negative Progress Report (24/7 section) → https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/corporate-responsibility/carbon-negative-2025